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URLhttps://doi.org/10.18429/JACoW-IPAC2026-MOP6310
TitleMachine-Learning–Assisted Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Accelerator Digital Twin Modeling and Control
Authors
  • W. Lin, C. Kelly, E. Hamwi, K. Brown, N. Urban
    Brookhaven National Laboratory
  • G. Hoffstaetter
    Cornell University (CLASSE), Brookhaven National Laboratory
  • J. Edelen
    RadiaSoft (United States)
AbstractDigital twins of particle accelerators are increasingly used for experiment planning, machine studies, and model‑based control. Achieving high‑fidelity predictions requires knowledge of machine properties that are difficult to measure directly, such as magnet alignments, transfer function variations, nonlinearities, and stray fields. In this work, we introduce parameterizations to capture these effects and employ Bayesian inference to estimate their values and uncertainties by calibrating a digital twin to orbit response measurements from the AGS Booster at Brookhaven National Laboratory. A machine‑learning emulator trained on a perturbed ensemble of Bmad simulations enables computationally efficient sampling of the high‑dimensional posterior. The resulting joint parameter distribution incorporates BPM uncertainties and provides data‑constrained variations that, when inserted back into the digital twin, significantly improve agreement with measured beam orbits while yielding uncertainty estimates on both parameters and predictions.
Paperdownload: MOP6310.pdf
CiteBibTeX, LaTeX, Text/Word, RIS, EndNote
Conference17th International Particle Accelerator Conference
Series
LocationDeauville, France
Date17-22 May 2026
PublisherJACoW Publishing, Geneva, Switzerland
Editorial BoardEditorial Board
Online ISBN978-3-95450-252-3
Online ISSN2673-5350
Received11 May 2026
Revised15 May 2026
Accepted
Issued20 July 2026
DOI10.18429/JACoW-IPAC2026-MOP6310
Pages403-406